Kevin's blog
EU announces huge rescue plan worth more than US$1 trillion....markets have huge rally.....and most importantly VIX falls down below 30 to 28.8.....
Tuesday, 11 May, 2010  8:47 AM
Posted by Kevin Scully

The EU rescue package is not unexpected given that the memories of the ripple effect from the closure of Lehman's is still fresh in the mind of many Governments, policy makers and investors.  So while the more than US$1 trillion gives us reason to cheer - we should expect a  bumpy road ahead as this package still needs to be approved by the parliaments of the individual EU members. This could be difficult and we already see a potential change in Government in Germany because of this.  This reminds me of the difficult road that the Obama Geithner package had before it finally went through the US Senate and Congress.

With this announcement which came around the close of trading yesterday, markets had a huge rally fuelled in part by short covering.  Our own STI Index was up close to sixty points yesterday in a "blue chip" rally but the volume was light. I expect the momentum to continue today and will be watching the volume - if it remains light than investors should be cautious as its more a relief short covering rally.  Medium term, I remain positive and with the VIX decidedly down from more than 40 to 28.8 overnight, I think medium term value investors can start to dip into stocks again once markets stabilise.  We are mid-way into the results season and I will be looking out for companies which beat forecasts and give strong forward guidance.  As I highlighted before, the tech sector seems to be where this is likely to happen.

On what to BUY, you can look at my Stock Picks - the stocks which havent really moved or which have retraced in the recent correction include ASTI, Hisaka, Broadway and China Animal Healthcare.  For investors who like a healthy dividend yield, Innotek and AEI can offer this on a one year view.  Read more about each stock in my Stock Pick section including my price targets.


Comments

Dayen Enviroment recovering ?
Hi Kevin, what is yr view on Dayen, seems like

a recovery stock pick.. 500% return stock pick ?


     Jeff  on 11 May 2010  11:52 AM
Dayen Environment
I will try an arrange a visit and let u know. Thanks for the idea.

     Kevin  on 11 May 2010  03:02 PM
The Euro show seem not ending yet
Bad news that lower the market confidence is good for speculator who going to short. How to do that? Rating down grading by general public well accepted organisation (although this organisation been rating toxic bond with good AAA rate, yet the rating seem now work well to lower market confidence. Other factors lower down the market confidence, Goldman Sach's case and China tighten financial policy + housing bubble (inflation). Although the fact that you read many company quaterly earning is better including 3 big banks in Singapore. Some of the Asia company not much related to EU at all but share price drop drastically. What it mean is good chance to buy more. Few weeks later is going to 2nd Quater financial result which is expected good as well. To take this advantage, the very big speculator for short terms has create the fall (with supported media and rating agency ++), they buy cheaper even using technical false reason for the Exchange super computer system. Sooner the media will promote a good news and the Big Speculator will benefit the down and up (Down ~15% and Up ~15% = 30 % profit). If US market with technical system fault cause about 1 Trillion gone + 3 days market drop by using EU debt concern drops. Probably the Big speculator going to make about 0.2~0.3 Trillion. The show is not ending yet. The true risk remain as EU's individual government (or new government) might not easily get consesus. Worst case EU disolve (as attacked by Financial nuclear bomb)+ EURO dollar might gone (then US dollar become more powerful)and World wide financial crisis again. I hope this will not happen as Social negative effect will be bigger (job loss etc). Never estimate US as nothing is impossible to US (include the 1 Trillion market value change within 2 hours). I'm sure US will getting better as they are smarter in the financial game. For those who gain from last year bottom should change some % to cash (Prepare the Bullet)from the slight recovery coming and only remain those strong fundamental good business (+ good dividend) for long terms.

     Benjamin  on 13 May 2010  11:26 PM
It seem the current market is more speculative than true investment
From the series of the shows, it seem that the market is more manipulative by the very SUPER speculative than the true value investor. While you are optimist about the economic quaterly report (short term result only), be prudent for the future. Cheers.

     Benjamin  on 13 May 2010  11:32 PM

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