Sureesh asked me whether China New Town could be a candidate for the next Big One.   The chart below shows that it meets one criteria, ie that its shares have probably fallen more than 90%.  I dont follow this stock closely but had a quick look at the announcements and financials.  But the chart of China New Town first.

The financials however probably justify the share's poor performance.   In its Q3-2008 results, the company reported a net loss for the nine months of RMB 482mn from a loss in the previous Nine months of RMB 198mn.....but a large part of the loss can be attributed to an impairment charge of RMB 400mn for its investment propertie and another charge of RMB 287mn from a loss on convertible bond.   I also looked at its gearing level which according to the Q3-2008 numbers is high.....shareholders funds was RMB 2.52bn while total debt was RMB2.1bn giving a gearing ratio of 0.84.  Cash was only RMB 274mn and the company had to secure a bank line of RMB 96mn on January 23, 2009.   On the surface, it looks like the company could be facing some cashflow problems and we could see further impairment of its property assets if this global deflation cycle continues.  Also property and banks are likely to be late cycle recovery plays if the company can survive this prolonged crisis by continuing to secure financial support from its banks.

On balance, the stock price is very low but it started falling from day one (see chart above) even before the this crisis kicked in in  a big way in H2-2008.  Finance and balance sheet concerns by investors probably means that it is likely to remain at these levels until it can improve its balance sheet and the asset deflation cycle reverse.   I thank Sureesh for his suggestion but dont think I can include it in my short list of "Big One" candidates.