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STI breaches 1700 intra-day.....is this a trend reversal ????......what are the charts saying ??????
Tuesday, 24 March, 2009  1:35 PM
Posted by Kevin Scully

The STI Index is up 41 points at lunch to close at 1705.51.  We have crossed two levels in two days - the 1600 which was the main support and now resistance and the 1700 with apparent ease.  Of the 41 point gain today 20 odd points came from the three bank shares.   But is this rise (assuming the STI Index rises above the 1700 and holds for the afternoon session) mean that we have a trend reversal.   This is a chartists view and  would recommend comments as I am a pseudo chartists of the 1980s.  

The chart below tells me - we have some way to go to reverse the huge downtrend channels with a breach into bull market occuring above the 2500 level.  Looks like 1900 the upper line of the lower parallel channel is where the first big test will come.  If it doesnt breach then its possible that the index could trend down to the lower channel and test the 1450 again.  We wont know the answer until a couple of weeks when this euphoria subsides and we look at execution of the plans announced.  The Bulls including Mark Mobius feel that what we may be seeing is the formation of a bottom at 1450 - which may be retested and unless there are more sudden surprises such as this Geithner package not taking off or maybe war in Iran/Iraq, or a major corprate failure.  I am not sure but am open to review my 1200 target into the Q1-2009 reporting season.


Comments

Strong short-term rally on charts; but still feels like bear rally.
For STI, look at MACD, momentum is impressive. Can substain another 10% - 15% upside. Pent-up demand letting go here.

Over at S&P, wave chartists suggest rally into 950/1000 (15% upside from current). Only a weekly close below 800 would negative this short-term rally. Unlikely given strong momentum. But Wave also suggest another wave down once 950/1000 reached.

Back to STI, market probably try to reclaim Jan high, but would find 200MA at 2000+ hard to breach.


     MS  on 24 March 2009  01:59 PM
Strong short-term rally on charts; but still feels like bear rally.
Thanks MS...I agree with u that it feels like a strong bear rally to me....driven by buying interest in our bank shares

     Kevin  on 24 March 2009  02:48 PM

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