Kevin's blog
EU debt woes and China's credit tightening weaknen markets globally.....global investors look jittery......should you lighten or sit tight and let the storm pass ??
Wednesday, 5 May, 2010  6:26 AM
Posted by Kevin Scully

 EU debt woes and China's credit tightening and potential re-capitalisation of its banks caused Asian markets to decline yesterday....Singapore was one of the worst hit among Asian markets.  Overnight, we saw sharp declines in US and EU markets again on concerns about the worsening EU debt crisis.  Although Greece has already agreed on a debt restructuring plan with the EU and IMF, this has led to civil protests which the "bears" take to me that it will need more refinancing down the road.   There is also a growing fear that the debt problems will spread to other PIGS which in total will be about 3.7% of world GDP.  Of the PIGS, Spain s the biggest at 2.4% - the other three are tiny.  So unless Spain cracks - which their Prime Minister has denied, then we might see a slightly bigger ripple effect.  Again the quantum of the amount to rescue is small relative to what was needed to save or rescue some of the US corporates.

So its probably just an excuse for investors to take profit and more so institutional investors.  The decision by New Centiury to withdraw its Singapore IPO probably means that the international book building was weak.....not surprising given the volatile global markets.  The other possible reason is an impending re-capitalisation of Chinese banks to meet new capital requirements which may such some liquidity out of the system.  Blue chips are likely to see more selling pressure in the coming weaks as the volatility starts to rise....keep a look out for the VIX.

One investor called me yesterday and said that market sentiment is weak and he is taking some money off the table.  Others are sitting on the sidelines waiting for a better buying opportunity.  I think this volatility will pass and by July/August, markets should resume their uptrend.  I have intentionally only focussed on recommending stocks with strong balance sheets, low PERs (from good earnings) and attractive dividend yields for my portolio (Stock Picks).  So if you dont want to trade, I think you can sit it out.   But bear in mind that everything falls in a weak market but on low volume so dont panic as your investments are backed by sound corporate fundamentals.  There could even be an opportunity to average down.

 If you have trading or concept stocks in your portfolio you may want to lighten on these as trading sentiment is likely to dampen such stocks over the next few weeks as short term trading liquidity moves to the sidelines.

 


Comments

PIGS will fly for now.
Hi Kevin,

good strategy. Your advice above is deeply appreciated.


     Gohsip  on 6 May 2010  12:49 PM
Mr
Kevin,

SSE is dropping quite a bit, again.. as of now.. hanging at 2,800.. As we know, the China market has been the leading index, the first to recover in 08 when the rest were still falling till March 09. A few months ago it started falling and the fall has intensified recently.

While we take note of the PIIGS, the China market could be more of a concern. The markets now hangs by a thread depending on the SSE.


     Free  on 6 May 2010  01:12 PM
The truth is always cruel and not always optimist as you think...
Simple logic -- with Worldwide Big Stimulation act(Bail Out and print so much money). The effect is Market (asset) will going up (up to what level ?-- sorry I don't know). However, the truth of investment return from business point, the bussiness must earning money (REAL GDP). Many of the good news really from better business ? Export higer indicate better economy recovery ? the answer is partially yes but not 100% as good reported. Over past 1~2 years, all business/marketing forcast lower production good needed and inventory has gone as normal people still consuming (still need to eat/drink right. futher financial mainly corporate loss not the normal people who not buying share (majority)). So, now Marketing order to procurement and logistic is higher as expecting market recovery and add back to the low inventory (even lack of good). For longer terms, the truth of the economy will be shown (when the tide is gone, the naked economy will show his body). For those bail out, bond that delay longer will be able to be clear by those trouble country ? When those trouble big amount bond expired ? who really study that ? and what will impact again ? Who will believe the stimulation act if the true economy really not to be acted / solved by those trouble country. Probably 2012 the end of the world (movie) will be reflect in the true life of mega disaster of financial world. I hope my prediction is wrong. As again it will be a very negative impact to society.

     Benjamin  on 14 May 2010  12:18 AM

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