Kevin's blog
Adding Fuxing China Group to my Stock Picks......today
Wednesday, 21 July, 2010  9:56 AM
Posted by Kevin Scully

 Last Friday at our "Investment Strategy for a Volatile Market" seminar organised by Lim & Tan I/we were asked what China stock/s investors could look at.  I told the attendees that we already had two China stocks in My Stock Picks (Sinomem and China Animal Healthcare).  I was thinking of adding another - Fuxing China Group.  We have already produced an initiation report on China Fuxing Group on July 16, 2010.  I was intending to add Fuxing to my list this Monday but had to make an unexpected trip to Penang that day.  The shares of Fuxing rose more than 10% on Monday on high volume but retraced a little yesterday (see Chart below).

 The key reasons for looking at Fuxing are:

a) its strong balance sheet. It has net cash of about RMB595mn or about S$0.15 to S$0.16 per share (higher than the current share price

b) we expect the company, which has been paying dividends to see the dividend payout rise giving a running yield of about 6%

c) the business of the company is set to improve following a collapse of margins in 2009 from the Global financial crisis.  We are forecasting profit growth of more than 100% in 2010

d) the price target in our report is S$0.28 - which offers upside of about 100%

e) technically the stocks seems to be breaking out of all its moving averages (see chart below) with some resistance expected at the S$0.20 level

The key to this rerating will be its results in 2010 - any confirmation in the earnings recovery that we expect will lead to a rerating,

Read the report for more details.

 


Comments

S-Chip Company
Dear Kevin,

There been bad news after bad news on S chip related companies which have cooked up theirs books and figures.

I understand you firm had a buy call on the caompany until the new broke that they do not have cash to pay off debt.

How is this firm any different?


     Average Investor  on 21 July 2010  07:52 PM
retail investor
got buy call on another S-chip during IPO n now trading > 30% lower. personally, i dont have any more confidence on S-chip counters now. too risky.

     retail investor  on 22 July 2010  10:39 AM
S-Chips
For my Stock Picks - I have been careful in chosing which S Chip to include - so far we have had three (Midas, Sinomem and China Animal Healthcare). No one really knows whether the cash as stated in balance sheet is really there - one test is to see if the company pays dividends - Fuxing does and so does China Animal. The second one is to look at the debt - Fuxing is in a comfortable net cash position and is now trading below its net cash per share of S$0.16.

Our company did make a BUY call on China Milk before it encountered repayment difficulties - which appear to linked to China's capital controls. Given this experience - you will notice that all the S-Chips that I recommend are in a net cash position with most paying dividends.

There are more risks with S-Chips but there is also more upside if a good S Chip has been wrongly penalised. In the case of Fuxing - if you are nervous - wait for its Q2-2010 numbers and if they come in strong as we expect - you may want to consider investing in it.


     Kevin  on 22 July 2010  12:02 PM
Agree for China Fuxing
Strong point: Price < than the cash asset. (a bird on hand is better than 3 on bush). Second, earning prospect is improved. Please study, China Sport as well, it offer the similar situation.

     Benjamin  on 4 August 2010  10:44 AM

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